Introduction to Bayesian-Based Decision Making

Course Level

Introductory

Prerequisites (suggested)

• “Chapter 21 – Bayesian Decision Analysis for Industrial Hygiene” in A Strategy for Assessing and Managing Occupational Exposures 3rd Edition, AIHA (2006)
• Hewett, P., Logan, P., Mulhuasen, J., Ramachandran, G., and Banerjee, S.: Rating Exposure Control Using Bayesian Decision Analysis. Journal of Occupational and Environmental Health 3:568-581 (2006). 
•  Download and install IHDataAnalyst-LiteEdition V1.05

Who Will Benefit

• OEHS managers, supervisors, and directors
• Industrial hygienists
• Consultants

Presented By

• Paul Hewett, Exposure Assessment Solutions, Inc.
• Barry Graffeo, Eli Lilly & Company

Course Description

Presentation #1
Introduction to Bayesian-based Decision Making – Covers an overview of the theory behind Bayesian Decision Analysis, assumptions and limitations, a comparison to standard statistical analysis, as well as the as an overview of how Bayesian methods permit the explicit use of professional judgment in the calculations.

Presentation #2
Introduction to IHDataAnalyst-LiteEdition – Covers an overview of a freeware program for doing standard statistical analyses plus Bayesian Decision Analysis of occupational exposure data.

Presentation #3 
Integrating Bayesian-based Decision Making into AIHA  Exposure Assessment Model – The AIHA exposure assessment model is based on determining if the exposure profile falls within one of five exposure ranges – Categories 0 through 4.  Since specific actions  - i.e., risk management decisions - tend to associated with each exposure category it is important to make the correct decision.  Bayesian-based decision making can facilitate the decision making process, particularly because the sample sizes tend to be small.

Presentation #4
Case Studies – Bayesian Decision Analysis, as well as standard statistical methods, will be applied to several exposure datasets and scenarios illustrating the use and advantages of Bayesian analysis.
Learning Objectives

Learning Outcomes

Students will be provided with tools to better able them to…

• Understand the basics of Bayesian-based decision-making method.
• Recognize the advantages of Bayesian methods, particularly in leveraging professional judgment.
• Preview the use a software tool to do both standard statistical analysis and Bayesian analysis of occupational exposure data.
• Understand the AIHA exposure control banding model and how exposure control decisions are linked to risk management actions.
• Use Bayesian-based methods to better apply the AIHA exposure control banding model.
• Apply Bayesian methods to common exposure assessment scenarios.
• Be aware of the assumptions and cautions associated with the use of both Bayesian and standard statistical methods.

Presenter Information

Paul Hewett Ph.D. CIH

Hewett is the founder and president of Exposure Assessment Solutions, Inc. Previously, Hewett worked for twenty-five years as an industrial hygienist for NIOSH's Division of Respirable Disease Studies, specializing in the measurement of pneumoconiosis producing dusts. His credentials include a doctorate in industrial hygiene from the University of Pittsburgh, School of Public Health (1991). Hewett is also the author of numerous articles and chapters on exposure assessment and statistics for industrial hygienists, as well as a past chair of the AIHA Exposure Assessment Strategies Committee.

J. Barry Graffeo, CIH

Graffeo earned a bachelor of science in environmental science at Auburn University and a master’s of science in public health at the University of Alabama in Birmingham. Graffeo is currently the corporate industrial hygienist at Eli Lilly and Company. He consults with research and manufacturing sites around the world to implement comprehensive exposure assessment programs. Graffeo has more than 16 years of experience in bulk chemical, biochemical and pharmaceutical manufacturing; as well as research and development activities. Graffeo is the past chair of the AIHA Exposure Assessment Strategies Committee. He has taught numerous exposure assessment courses and coordinated symposiums on the subject. He is the 2005 recipient of the Kusnetz Award sponsored by AIHA and the 2006 UAB School of Public Health Alumnus of the Year.

Certification

If you submit your final exam within one month of purchasing your CD you can get 0.5 CM points, 0.25 COCs, and 0.25 CEUs.

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