Slide 25 of 28
Notes:
The anomaly is that we appear to be one year early on the upward swing.
The initial analysis of the data shows that since the inception of the behavior-based safety process we have had a steady decline in our incident rate for the Phase I departments.
If we look at the data for 2001, which is incomplete due to only having five months of data, we are currently at an incident rate of 7.74 for calendar year 2001.
Does this mean that the incident rate has bottomed out and will begin increasing?
Trend analysis of the data shows a stair step pattern. As seen on the graph for years 1996 through 2000, the incident rate goes down, down, up and down.
Is the upward trend in 2001 reflective of a stair step pattern or a change in incident rate?
It is unknown if a downward trend will continue since the analysis is so short. The 2001 data is inconclusive since there is only five months of data within the incident base reporting period of 12 months as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Bear in mind, within the departments represented by Phase I, behavior-based safety was started in 1999. Since 1999 we have had a downward trend in incident rates.
The data will be carefully monitored throughout the remainder of the incident base reporting period. If the data shows there is a reversal in the trend of the past three years, then this raises the possibility of revisiting our incident prevention plan.
